Has Health Minister Mandetta become unfireable?

On Monday afternoon, aides of Brazil’s Health Minister were told to clean out their desks, as President Jair Bolsonaro appeared set to “use his pen” and sack ministry head Luiz Henrique Mandetta, after weeks of squabbles over his handling of the Covid-19 crisis. By the evening, however, Mr. Bolsonaro had been talked off the ledge by the military members of his cabinet, and Mr. Mandetta remains the country’s Health Minister — for now.

Since the Covid-19 pandemic reached Brazil in March, President Jair Bolsonaro and his Health Minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta have been in a gradually escalating war of words. Mr. Mandetta, a trained physician, has preached the need to follow World Health Organization guidelines and promote isolation and social distancing measures nationwide. 

President Bolsonaro, on the other hand, has belittled the danger of Covid-19 and urged the country to return to work. Public opinion has sided with the former, with the latest Datafolha polls showing the Health Minister’s handling of the crisis is twice as popular as that of President Bolsonaro’s.

Health Minister Mandetta: doomed, or untouchable?

While it is clear that Jair Bolsonaro has cut ties with Mr. Mandetta, the Health Minister has the support of many of his peers in the cabinet, as well as the heads of Congress, the judiciary — and the government’s military wing. This raises the question: has Health Minister Mandetta become unfireable?

President Bolsonaro appears to think not. In a fiery Facebook Live broadcast on Sunday, the president ranted about the “power of [his] pen,” warning insubordinate cabinet ministers that “their time will come.”

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“Some in my administration, something went to their heads. They were normal people, and suddenly became ‘stars’ who talk nonstop and make provocations,” said Mr. Bolsonaro. “Their time hasn’t come, but it will. My pen is powerful and it will be used. I’m not afraid to use my pen — and it will be used for the good of Brazil, not my own well-being.”

Mr. Mandetta, meanwhile, seemingly confident in the quality of his work as Health Minister, remains defiant. Behind-the-scenes reports tell of a heated phone conversation with the president on Thursday, in which Mr. Mandetta would have refused to resign and threatened Mr. Bolsonaro to fire him. He also reportedly suggested that the president take responsibility for all Covid-19 deaths in Brazil.

How will Bolsonaro proceed?

Even in President Jair Bolsonaro’s terms, firing a Health Minister during a pandemic is not a desirable outcome. Not least firing a cabinet member who is overwhelmingly popular among the electorate and is backed by nearly all other spheres of power in Brazil. However, faced with such “insubordination” from one of the “star” members of his cabinet, Mr. Bolsonaro may feel his hand is forced, and that an eventual sacking may become necessary as a personal face-saving measure.

Amid Monday’s rumor mill that Luiz Henrique Mandetta was on his way out, reports stated that former Citizenship Minister Osmar Terra was being lined up as his replacement. Mr. Terra, a 70-year-old conservative who has consistently posted misleading information on Twitter regarding the Covid-19 pandemic, would be Mr. Bolsonaro’s ideal Health Minister, guaranteed to toe his line of opposition to social isolation measures.

“Brazilian political history tells us that you can’t outshine the president,” says Oliver Stuenkel, professor of international relations at Fundação Getúlio Vargas in São Paulo. Speaking to The Brazilian Report, he explains that presidents “see their cabinet ministers and vice presidents as potential challengers, and that is why the Mandetta situation is completely unsustainable.”

Mr. Stuenkel draws the comparison with former President Itamar Franco (1992–1994), under whose presidency the famous Plano Real program was implemented, creating Brazil’s new currency.

“His Finance Minister, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, took all of the credit for creating the Brazilian Real, and that was a huge mistake by Itamar Franco. All presidents that came after him have done everything possible to avoid such a mistake, so all cabinet ministers who get too popular end up getting sacked.”

This rationale fits with Jair Bolsonaro’s treatment of Sergio Moro and Paulo Guedes — ministers of Justice and the Economy, respectively — who began the presidential term as so-called “superministers” but have been repeatedly cut down by Mr. Bolsonaro whenever they get too popular.

Whether he is able to do the same with Health Minister Mandetta, reining him in while being able to take the credit for Brazil’s health response to Covid-19, seems unclear.

For the time being, Luiz Henrique Mandetta remains in his job, but his position has become almost completely untenable under a Jair Bolsonaro presidency. The Health Minister remains defiant, stressing that he is “on the side of science” and requesting he have “peace in order to do [his] job.”

Yesterday’s events show us, however, that President Bolsonaro will not find it easy firing his Health Minister. The mix of support from the electorate, Congress, key cabinet members, and — apparently — Jair Bolsonaro’s military allies do grant Mr. Mandetta an air of invincibility. The president is therefore faced with a decision: sack his Health Minister and see his own political isolation aggravated further, or lose the spotlight to one of his subordinates.